They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. [51]Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Like, the troll factory creates disinformation, creates the fog of war. Pretty outdated. Moreover, Russia has also made some important progress in swarming technology. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. "For example, for every item of gear or equipment, we must listen to those who use them and understand how these items perform and whether they are fit for their intended purpose," Putin told his coordination council, according to the Kremlin's official site. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ZpJRkRStLw, Vuhledar, and Russians tried it again. The small central European country now hosts thousands of NATO troops while allied aircraft patrol its skies, allowing Bratislava to consider becoming MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. Pointing out outdated stereotypes regarding Russia's military isn't meant to aggrandize its prowess, glorify its campaigns or defend human-rights abuses and invasions. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. So I think we need to update laws of armed conflict, and we have to figure out - you know, international law without teeth is just ink on paper. Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. Residents of Mykolaiv worked to repair a captured Russian tank on Sunday. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. Pretty outdated. [43]Russian forces have conducted infrequent localized attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast in recent months but have not conducted any meaningful offensive activity in Kherson Oblast since withdrawing from the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. [37]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defensive lines in Pobieda and gained new footholds within Marinka. Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. The Kremlin appears to be using Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as a conduit to reengage with this information operation, likely in pursuit of negotiations on favorable terms to Russia and further delays in the Wests provision of critical weapons systems to Ukraine. Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. They have been updated through the decades. His careful response, before reporters in Estonia: Weve seen a large, combined-arms, multi-axis invasion of the second-largest country in Europe, Ukraine, by Russian air, ground, special forces, intelligence forces, he said, before describing some of the bombardment brought by Russia and his concern over its indiscriminate firing on civilians. [71]ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed in a February 16 meeting with Russian Commissioner for Childrens Rights Maria Lvova-Belova that the Kremlin is directly involved in facilitating the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian families. Satellite imagery taken on February 28 shows the first pictures of the A-50 since Belarusian partisans reportedly attacked it on February 26. MARTIN: And by hybrid warfare, what do we mean? And the Western governments that have spoken openly about Russias military failings are eager to spread the word to help damage Russian morale and bolster the Ukrainians. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Depends on which standards the word outdated is based. By Hollywood standards, its certainly mostly outdated, there are even personnel wearing 1 The rusty BTR-50P, which dates back to 1954, probably wont fare too well in combat. Have they proved reliable in the past? Sign up for notifications from Insider! Troops are trained in rote set pieces, with no time devoted to improvising if things dont go as planned. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. Sign up for notifications from Insider! "My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model) is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war After losing a few soldiers the Russians will withdraw (as in Chechnya). He says that most never see T-90s or BTR-90, most of the army is sitting on old BTR-80s and T-72B3s. MCFATE: Look; the laws of armed conflict, the laws of war, they all were created over 100 years ago, mostly, and they only seek to address conventional war, sort of state-on-state, military-on-military formal war like World War II. The Ukrainian General Staff amplified on February 28 a report from Ukraines Head of the Center for Trophy Research, Colonel Alexander Zaruba, assessing that Russian purchases of equipment from North Korea and Iran and deployment of outdated Kh-22 missiles indicate that Russia itself cannot meet wartime production needs. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. Full speed into the obvious minefield. [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. Thank you for joining us. [72]The decision also imposes sanctions on seven Russian humanitarian and social movement organizations involved in various Russian schemes aiming to deport children. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910. Despite those losses, Russia is continuing its push, and with that still trying to move its armor forward, directly into Ukrainian landmines. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. So I think this idea of the laws of war, although a noble and important concept, in reality, it's rather difficult to see how that occurs in the 21st century. [44]Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces immediately locate Russian artillery units on the Kinburn Spit once they fire and that these Russian units do not have enough time to evacuate the area before Ukrainian forces conduct counterbattery fire. After days of miscalculation about Ukraines resolve to fight, Russian forces are turning toward an old pattern of opening fire on cities and mounting sieges. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. Russian authorities appear to be escalating their promotion of false flag information operations to distract from their lack of tangible battlefield gains and slow down the provision of Western tanks and other aid in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. By Helene Cooper,Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, CONSTANTA, Romania When it comes to war, generals say that mass matters.. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. Published Feb 25, 2023 3:07 PM EST. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may facilitate sanctions evasion schemes between Russia and China during his official trip to Beijing, China from February 28 March 2. Militaries change in response to experience and material circumstances, and Russia's is no different. Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. So mercenaries, in the last six or eight years, have become Russia's weapon of choice. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. [33]A Russian milblogger remarked that Russian troops are attacking towards Bohdanivka in order to threaten the Khromove-Bakhmut route. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. All this aside, it is still possibleeven likelythat, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians,capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. : r/CredibleDefense 9 yr. ago Posted by bleepblopbloopy Russias Overestimated Military Might. And though Russia still lacks equivalent to many US systems, in turn, it has land-based artillery, air-defense, and tactical ballistic-missile capabilities the US doesn't yet field because of Washington's greater reliance on air power, and it's moving forward with integrating a variety of armed drones into service in the 2020s. Putin seems to be following a manual out of the last century, not this one. Their caution partly explains why they still dont have air superiority over all of Ukraine, for example, American officials said. That's clear. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. [7]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [8]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597, [9]http://en.kremlindot ru/events/president/news/70597. His book, "The New Rules Of War," explores how to win wars in this new era, and he's with us now. This whole question of what constitutes a war crime in the modern era was established in the Geneva Convention in 1949. Russias military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraines. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Ukraines military could pull back from the key eastern stronghold of Bakhmut, an adviser to the Ukrainian president said Wednesday, NOW WATCH: Russia just introduced a new missile nicknamed 'Satan 2' here's a look at their other formidable weapon systems, fragging" unpopular officers with grenades, humiliating destruction of Russian armored columns, doctrinal and technical innovations in the Soviet military. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in the Ground Forces. The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Mr. Kagan said. While procuring new aircraft, the VKS retired over a thousand Russias War Time T-62 Tanks These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. But any economists can tell you a dollar spent in China or Russia can buy more than a dollar in, say, Switzerland or the United States, meaning Russian military systems cost much less than Western ones, and salaries paid even to contract soldiers are much lower than in the US or Europe. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. I mean, are they Russian nationals? Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Now, most of those mercenaries with the Wagner Group, they are ex - we'll say, like, USSR orbit. And though the Finns executed a masterful mobile defense against larger Soviet forces in 1939-1940 and 1944, Helsinki was still eventually forced to sue for peace and cede the Karelian Isthmus both times. [55], Russian forces continue to face severe difficulties in replenishing military equipment and ammunition. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. WebRussias Overestimated Military Might. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. They're not a militia of the GRU, which is the military intelligence. [30]The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks on Bakhmut itself; north of Bakhmut near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest), Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest), Berkhkivka (4km north), Yahidne (1km northwest), Vasyukivka (13km northwest), and Bohdanivka (8km northwest); west of Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar (10km west); and southwest of Bakhmut near Bila Hora (15km southwest). Gen. Rauno Sirk, in an interview with a local newspaper, was even more blunt in his assessment of the Russian air force. Its troops could plunder the places they conquer for fuel, food, and other supplies. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. Serbia has shown interest in French jets since 2022 in the hopes of replacing outdated Soviet MIGs. Why did they so badly misjudge the Ukrainian resistance? WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. I mean, what mechanism of accountability is there? [22]China may clandestinely transfer equipment to Russia via Belarus. So I think we - you know, and the laws of war will once again prove rather feckless in changing his decision to do that. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/19653;https://t.me/SergeyKolyasnikov/4666 https://t.me/astrapress/21972;https://t.me/sotaproject/54572, https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/481;https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/480. While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. Videos taken by Ukrainian fighters and shared online have shown Russian tanks attempting to cross fields and roads, only to crash to a halt as a mine blows up beneath them. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. But they are advancing on winding roads and their flanks and supply routes are overly exposed to Ukrainian attacks.. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s Do the sources know the information? Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. Click here. You can follow his articles on Twitter. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. So what - and I'm going to ask you to explain, you know, what that means, but when you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, tell me what you see. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. Russian opposition sourceMeduzareported on February 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to sign one-year military contracts as privates and sergeants, as opposed to the traditional five-year contracts. [7]Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Federal Security Service (FSB) board on February 28 and emphasized the role of the FSB in supporting the war in Ukraine in a law enforcement and counterterrorism capacity. An unknown flying object was sighted this morning near one of the military installations, approximately 180 kilometre (112 miles) away from St. Petersburg, hometown of Vladimir Putin.It further adds that, as After four days of fighting, the Russian military is bogged down in Ukraine. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. It is just one of many aging T-62s deployed by the Russians in Ukraine, many of which have either been But with each day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds out, the scenes of a frustrated Russia pounding, but not managing to finish off, a smaller opponent dominate screens around the world. Please try again. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. Ukraine has shot down military transport planes carrying Russian paratroopers, downed helicopters and blown holes in Russias convoys using American anti-tank missiles and armed drones supplied by Turkey, these officials said, citing confidential U.S. intelligence assessments.
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