lake powell water level forecast 2022

//-->, Printable Version The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? SW Satellite Weather GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Scientists say the current drought is the driest on record in the last twelve hundred years. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. levels. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. hbbd``b`$WX)! (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. The lake is set to reach. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Click for . endstream endobj startxref These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. 15 Day Weather Forecast Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert, it'll take a long time to restore the levels, too. //-->, Printable Version The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. 15 Day Weather Forecast She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 11, 2023 There are currently 1,757,155,460,140 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Flight Center. google_color_url = "426C95"; google_color_text = "000000"; Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. The release volume from Glen Canyon Dam in January was 500 kaf. Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. n$L{Z. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. However, the Bureau of Reclamation's 24-month forecast that was just released at the end of last week projects Lake Mead to be at 1,041.10 feet in January 2023. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. 04:12 - Source: CNN Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Soil moisture conditions have improved over the last year across most of Colorados Western Slope, but thats not necessarily saying much because of how bad soil moisture conditions were heading into last years snowmelt runoff season, Moser said. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? We are 37% through the Water Year. Gas Prices on Lake Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Detailed Map of Powell The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. The amount of water predicted to flow into Lake Powell this year is down slightly from the previous month, according to the May report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. google_ad_height = 600; DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T A powerful winter storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain and snow showers increasing across the region after midnight. google_ad_height = 600; Lake Powell